Climate (MAGICC)

The response of the carbon-cycle and climate to anthropogenic climate drivers is modelled with the MAGICC model (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change). MAGICC is a reduced-complexity coupled global climate and carbon cycle model which calculates projections for atmospheric concentrations of GHGs and other atmospheric climate drivers like air pollutants, together with consistent projections of radiative forcing, global annual-mean surface air temperature, and ocean-heat uptake (Meinshausen et al., 2011a [69]). MAGICC is an upwelling-diffusion, energy-balance model, which produces outputs for global- and hemispheric-mean temperature. MAGICC is most commonly used in a deterministic setup (Meinshausen et al., 2011b [70]), but also a probabilistic setup (Meinshausen et al., 2009 [68]) is available which allows to estimate the probabilities of limiting warming to below specific temperature levels given a specified emissions path (Rogelj et al., 2013a [98]; Rogelj et al., 2013b [99]; Rogelj et al., 2015 [100]). Climate feedbacks on the global carbon cycle are accounted for through the interactive coupling of the climate model and a range of gas-cycle models. (Fricko et al., 2016 [27])

For more information about the model, see www.magicc.org.