Overview

The IIASA IAM framework consists of a combination of five different models or modules - the energy model MESSAGE, the land use model GLOBIOM, the air pollution and GHG model GAINS, the aggregated macro-economic model MACRO and the simple climate model MAGICC - which complement each other and are specialized in different areas. All models and modules together build the IIASA IAM framework, also referred to as MESSAGE-GLOBIOM owing to the fact that the energy model MESSAGE and the land use model GLOBIOM are its most important components. The five models provide input to and iterate between each other during a typical scenario development cycle. Below is a brief overview of how the models interact with each other, specifically in the context of developing the SSP scenarios.

MESSAGE represents the core of the IIASA IAM framework (Fig. 1) and its main task is to optimize the energy system so that it can satisfy specified energy demands at the lowest costs. MESSAGE carries out this optimization in an iterative setup with MACRO, which provides estimates of the macro-economic demand response that results from energy system and services costs computed by MESSAGE. For the six commercial end-use demand categories depicted in MESSAGE (see Energy demand), MACRO will adjust useful energy demands, until the two models have reached equilibrium (see Macro-economy (MACRO)). This iteration reflects price-induced energy efficiency improvements that can occur when energy prices change.

GLOBIOM provides MESSAGE with information on land use and its implications, including the availability and cost of bioenergy, and availability and cost of emission mitigation in the AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use) sector (see Land-use (GLOBIOM)). To reduce computational costs, MESSAGE iteratively queries a GLOBIOM emulator which provides an approximation of land-use outcomes during the optimization process instead of requiring the GLOBIOM model to be rerun iteratively. Only once the iteration between MESSAGE and MACRO has converged, the resulting bioenergy demands along with corresponding carbon prices are used for a concluding analysis with the full-fledged GLOBIOM model. This ensures full consistency of the results from MESSAGE and GLOBIOM, and also allows producing a more extensive set of land-use related indicators.

Air pollution implications of the energy system are accounted for in MESSAGE by applying technology-specific air pollution coefficients from GAINS (see Air pollution).

In general, cumulative global carbon emissions from all sectors are constrained at different levels, with equivalent pricing applied to other GHGs, to reach the desired radiative forcing levels (cf. right-hand side Fig. 1). The climate constraints are thus taken up in the coupled MESSAGE-GLOBIOM optimization, and the resulting carbon price is fed back to the full-fledged GLOBIOM model for full consistency. Finally, the combined results for land use, energy, and industrial emissions from MESSAGE and GLOBIOM are merged and fed into MAGICC (see Climate (MAGICC)), a global carbon-cycle and climate model, which then provides estimates of the climate implications in terms of atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, and global-mean temperature increase. Importantly, climate impacts and impacts of the carbon cycle are currently not accounted for in the IIASA IAM framework. The entire framework is linked to an online database infrastructure which allows straightforward visualisation, analysis, comparison and dissemination of results (Riahi et al., 2016 [97]).

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Fig. 1 Overview of the IIASA IAM framework. Coloured boxes represent respective specialized disciplinary models which are integrated for generating internally consistent scenarios (Fricko et al., 2016 [27]).