The scenario ensemble is protected by EU Sui generis database rights.
Summary
This Scenario Explorer presents an ensemble of quantitative, model-based
pathways underpinning the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of Working Group III
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
entitled Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change.
For more information on the scenarios in the AR6 Scenarios Database,
please see the About tab.
Copyright and License
The scenario data available on this page has been compiled to support the assessment of quantitative pathways in the IPCC AR6. The
copyright of the scenario data is held by the respective institutions and modelling teams, with permission to make available the data
on this website. The scenario data may be re-used and reproduced in accordance with the license
Individual documents on this webpage may have different copyright conditions than IIASA; these conditions will be noted in the
respective documents. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of IIASA, its National Member
Organizations, or other supporting institutions.
The scenario ensemble is made publicly available to ensure reproducibility and transparency with respect to the
scenario set that has been assess in AR6. The Scenario Explorer allows for the re-use of scenario data by other research
communities. Please read the guidance note and the license terms on the License page
before downloading data or figures.
Background of the Scenario Explorer
Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change
As part of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), authors from Working Group III on Mitigation of
Climate Change undertook a comprehensive exercise to collect and assess quantitative, model-based scenarios
related to the mitigation of climate change. Building on previous assessments, such as those undertaken
for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), the calls
for scenarios in AR6 have been expanded to include energy, emissions, and sectoral scenarios from global to
national scales, thus more broadly supporting the assessment across multiple chapters (see Annex III, Part 2
of the WG III Report and the About tab for more details).
The compilation and assessment of the scenario ensemble was conducted by authors of the IPCC AR6 report, and the
resource is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as part of a
cooperation agreement with Working Group III
of the IPCC. The scenario ensemble contains 3,131 quantitative scenarios with
data on socio-economic development, greenhouse gas emissions, and sectoral transformations across energy, land use,
transportation and industry. These scenarios derive from 188 unique modelling frameworks and 95+ model families that
are either globally comprehensive, national, multi-regional or sectoral. The criteria for submission included that
the scenario is presented in a peer-reviewed journal accepted for publication no later than October 11th, 2021, or
published in a report determined by the IPCC to be eligible grey literature by the same date.
Recommended citation of the AR6 Scenarios Database
When using the scenario ensemble or exporting figures/tables from this Scenario Explorer, please cite as detailed
below. You should also include a clear indication of the version number of the release to ensure
reproducibility.
Edward Byers, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, Jarmo Kikstra, Robin Lamboll, Zebedee Nicholls, Marit Sanstad, Chris Smith, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Franck Lecocq, Joana Portugal-Pereira, Yamina Saheb, Anders Strømann, Harald Winkler, Cornelia Auer, Elina Brutschin, Matthew Gidden, Philip Hackstock, Mathijs Harmsen, Daniel Huppmann, Peter Kolp, Claire Lepault, Jared Lewis, Giacomo Marangoni, Eduardo Müller-Casseres, Ragnhild Skeie, Michaela Werning, Katherine Calvin, Piers Forster, Celine Guivarch, Tomoko Hasegawa, Malte Meinshausen, Glen Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Bjorn Samset, Julia Steinberger, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef van Vuuren.
AR6 Scenarios Database hosted by IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2022.
doi: 10.5281/zenodo.5886911 |
url: data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/
In addition to the data, you may find more relevant information in and cite one of the relevant chapters of the
WG III report.
If working with global or regional (R6, R10) data, please consider citing Chapter 3:
Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, et al. Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-Term Goals, in "Mitigation of Climate Change".
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2022.
url: Mitigation of Climate Change - Chapter 3
If working with national data (ISO region data), please consider citing Chapter 4:
Franck Lecocq, Harald Winkler, et al. Mitigation and development pathways in the near- to mid-term, in "Mitigation of Climate Change".
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2022.
url: Mitigation of Climate Change - Chapter 4
If you find the metadata files particularly useful, please consider citing Annex III:
Celine Guivarch, Elmar Kriegler, Joana Portugal-Pereira, et al. Annex III: Scenarios and Modelling Methods, in "Mitigation of Climate Change".
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2022.
url: Mitigation of Climate Change - Annex III
Scenario data also supports analysis in Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12 and 15.
More information
Please refer to the
About
page for more information on the content of the scenario ensemble, including the studies contributing scenarios
and the full list of contributors to the scenario data.
reproducibility.
Acknowledgements
The IAMC Scientific
Working Group on Data Protocols and Management and numerous authors of the AR6 WGIII Report are acknowledged for their
efforts to enable consistent reporting across research groups and the development of a common data template. For full details
of contributions and acknowledgements, please see the About page.
